WARNING : You have prevented the app from using your location, so all times and forecasts will be inaccurate.
|A status report will normally be posted by 7pm each evening, with further updates as things develop.|
Enter your name and location to activate the live reports.
Noctilucent clouds are lit by sunlight in an area of the night sky called the Twilight Arc.
My twilight-arc tracker is constantly monitoring the position of the sun at your location and calculating the position and height of the twilight arc.
The centre of the twilight arc is at the sun's azimuth. The sun's elevation is its angle above (or below, if -ve) the horizon.
The 'Max Heights' are the maximum angles above the horizon that Noctilucent Clouds and Cirrus can be lit directly by sunlight.
NLCs are only visible when the sun is between 6° and 16° below the horizon and the times when you are able to see them are shown.
Auroras occur during geomagnetic substorms, so substorms are the most important thing for aurora-hunters to watch.
My substorm tracker is constantly monitoring magnetometers on the Norwegian & Swedish Arrays to detect when substorms are starting and then looking for the critical expansion and recovery phases when the aurora is its best.
If you enable the expansion alarm your device will start beeping loudly as soon as the Substorm Tracker spots that an expansion phase is in progress.
The two important headline figures are the strength of the substorm in nT and the distance of the substorm from your location in kilometres. The visibility of the aurora is directly related to the strength and distance of the substorm from the UK. What you want is a substorm in the expansion or recovery phase, with as large a negative strength as possible and a very close proximity to the UK.
I am indebted to the kindness and generosity of the Tromsø Geophysical Observatory and Swedish Institute of Space Physics for letting me access their live data feeds and use them to alert you when the aurora can be photographed in the UK & Ireland.
The table shows an analysis of the interplanetary magnetic field in the 30 minute window that is currently arriving at Earth, together with the 30 minute windows either side of it.
The 'percentage' figure indicates how negative the Bz was, the ideal is 100% negative. The 'power' figure indicates the total power of the magnetic field that was passing into the Earth's atmosphere during the periods of negative Bz. The 'energy' figure is the gross power of the IMF during each 30 minute window.
With both power and energy, the stronger it is, the better.
This the the mean velocity, density and pressure of the solar wind that is currently arriving at the Earth. The higher the pressure of the solar wind the better.
Long-duration solar flares often produce a CME which, if directed earthward, can cause geomagnetic substorms between two and four days after the eruption.
Flares are classed B, C, M or X with B being weakest and X being strongest. The number indicates how strong the flare was within its class.
These are the dates when solar wind streams that gave us good auroras will rotate around again. There is no guarantee that the coronal holes that caused the substorms on the previous rotation won't have closed but they also may have got larger. You can only use these as a guide but this is the most accurate long-range forecast for the UK that you will find anywhere in the world.
This forecast is based on my own data collected in the UK and is specific to the UK & Ireland. You may see more than one entry per day if there were multiple, strong substorms in the same day on the previous rotation.
Access to the GPS on your device is blocked.
To install this web app on your phone:
Open it in the Chrome App and make Chrome your default browser.
Allow the app to use your location.
Scroll to address bar (top right).
Click the icon that is three vertical dots.
In the popup, click 'Add To Start Screen'.
In the app, Click 'Enable Manual Alerts'.
Allow the app to make updates.
Click 'Enable Automatic Alerts'.
The 'manual alerts' are push notifications that I send out when I get an actual aurora on camera or it becomes coloured to the naked eye.
The 'automated alerts' are push notifications that the app sends automatically when it detects that an aurora is developing. An 'onset' alert is sent first as a warning that an aurora is starting, followed by yellow, amber and red alerts as activity develops.
The 'Expansion Alarm' is designed for desktop users. If you leave the app running permanently on your PC, the app will start bleeping as soon as it detects a substorm heading into expansion phase to give you time to head out and catch it at its peak.
To help serious aurora-hunters, the app automatically prioritises alerts so that regular users of the app are sent their push alerts first.
Entering your name and location here will allow you to make instant, live, aurora reports to let others know what the current situation is where you are. You will also be able to see reports from other users.
This app was created by Andy Stables of the Glendale Skye Auroras Facebook Page to make it easy for people in the UK & Ireland to photograph the Aurora Borealis.
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